Vasatlıkla Mücadele

Ellsberg Paradoksu: Bildiklerimiz bilmediklerimizden daha mı önemli?

Episode Summary

Bu bölümde belirsizlikten kaçınma eğilimimizi ortaya koyan Ellsberg paradoksundan, bahse girmenin inceliklerinden ve aşı karşıtlığının rasyonel sebeplerinden bahsediyorum.

Episode Notes

Kaynaklar: 

  1. The Economist - Daniel Ellsberg leaked the Pentagon Papers to try to stop the Vietnam war
  2. Ellsberg, D. (1961) - Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms
  3. Courbage, C., & Peter, R. (2021) - On the effect of uncertainty on personal vaccination decisions
  4. Ritov, I., & Baron, J. (1990) - Reluctance to vaccinate: Omission bias and ambiguity
  5. Han, P. K., Zikmund-Fisher, B. J., Duarte, C. W., Knaus, M., Black, A., Scherer, A. M., & Fagerlin, A. (2018) - Communication of scientific uncertainty about a novel pandemic health threat: ambiguity aversion and its mechanisms
  6. Portnoy, D. B., Han, P. K., Ferrer, R. A., Klein, W. M., & Clauser, S. B. (2013) - Physicians’ attitudes about communicating and managing scientific uncertainty differ by perceived ambiguity aversion of their patients
  7. New York Times Podcast - Daniel Ellsberg on the papers he didn't leak

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